DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
VALID 06Z MON 24/03 - 06Z TUE 25/03 2003
ISSUED: 24/03 00:36Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AEGEAN SEA AREA

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN IBERIA

SYNOPSIS

THE BLOCKED PATTERN OVER WESTERN EUROPE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. A DEEP COLD UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN TURKEY. A WEAK EDDY OVER THE ATLANTIC WEST OF PORTUGAL WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. IT IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN TIP OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX OVER THE IRISH SEA WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS BRITAIN AND THE NORTH SEA AND BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN DENMARK AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DISCUSSION

...PARTS OF THE AEGEAN SEA AREA...
A POLAR AIR MASS IS RAPIDLY BEING ADVECTED SOUTHWARD OVER THE AEGEAN SEA. RELATIVELY SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL FORM. SOME SHOWERS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER AS LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH. SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR GIVEN STRONG BACKGROUND WINDFIELD (35-50KT@850). HIGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INTRODUCES A SMALL CHANCE OF SHORT-LIVED WEAK TORNADOES.

...WESTERN IBERIA...
THETA-E ADVECTION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF IBERIA WILL REINTENSIFY ON THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. RISING MOTIONS WILL LIKELY REMOVE ANY CAPPING STABLE LAYER. SOME LATENT INSTABILITY WILL BUILD (A FEW 100'S OF J/KG MLCAPE). SOME CLUSTERED MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO PORTUGAL FROM THE ATLANTIC DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SOME STORMS MAY ALSO FORM, FURTHER INLAND. SINCE WINDS AT 850 HPA ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 30 - 40 KTS, VERTICAL EXCHANGE OF HORIZONTAL MOMENTUM TOGETHER WITH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING OF PRECIPITATION MAY CAUSE MARGINALLY SEVERE GUSTS IN PLACES. RELATIVELY HIGH LCL'S INDICATE TORNADO RISK IS LOW. OVERALL THREAT SEEMS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK.

#